The hog industry is looking at some modest expansion, primarily driven by increased productivity rather than major increases to the breeding herd numbers.
University of Missouri Ag Economist Jason Franken said profitability during the second half of 2024 and in 2025 has helped improve pig farmers’ financial situation.
“Estimates coming out of Iowa State University indicate that on average hog producers have been showing a profit each month for nearly a year and a half, so they are healing from the dismal year of 2023,” Franken said.
According to the ISU figures, August 2025 was the 17th consecutive profitable month for hog farmers.
Lee Schulz, chief economist at Ever.Ag, said profitability is the key driver of hog industry expansion.
“I always say the phrase ‘producers respond to profitability, not prices,” Schulz said.
He said 2025 has, on average, shown profits of $22 to $23 per head for pork producers, with some recent months rising to $40 to $50 per head in profit.
“We’ve still kind of been in the financial healing period,” Schulz said. “That speaks to how bad 2023 was and the early part of 2024 was — 2023 and early 2024 was some of the worst profitability ever. We’re kind of just getting back to break even.”
The hog industry can see some growth even without major increases in the breeding herd due to improved productivity.
“Even if herd size doesn’t increase, growth in pigs per litter and the prospect of lower feed costs suggesting heavier weights should mean greater pork production,” Franken said.
Schulz said the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates provide the department’s outlook for industry growth.
He said the monthly reports project 2025 pork production to be down by 0.8% from 2024.
But they project 2026 pork production to be up nearly 3% from 2025, he said.
But he cautioned these estimates can change over time.
“I think that’s more reflective of where they started in May than where it is now,” Schulz said.
Still, he is optimistic about the prospects for building the swine breeding herd in the future, as profits are expected to continue into 2026.
“The forward curve does look promising,” Schulz said.
Even with the breeding herd not making major gains yet, he said the sows producers have gotten rid of in recent years are the older, less productive pigs, which has helped support the rise in productivity from the current breeding herd.
“The breeding herd we have is probably the youngest and most productive breeding herd that we’ve had,” Schulz said.
He said good demand has been supporting hog prices. It is a little lower than the immediate post-COVID-outbreak years that saw government payments to consumers, but in the historical context, it is still strong.
“Demand’s been good,” Schulz said. “It’s taken a bit of a step back from ’21 and ’22. But those higher demand levels were driven by government stimulus.”
He cautioned that diseases remain a potential obstacle.
“Disease challenges could still impact productivity numbers,” Schulz said.
In a USDA Economic Research Service outlook released Sept. 18, economists Mildred Haley and Adrianna Valcu-Lisman wrote that market conditions continue to look better for pork producers.
The authors cited lower supplies of slaughter-ready hogs, overall increases in meat prices and moderating feed prices as factors supporting profitability.
Haley and Valcu-Lisman project fourth-quarter pork production at 7.29 billion pounds, which is slightly lower than the August estimate but would still be an increase of 1.1% over the fourth quarter of 2024.
